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TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that rebuilding from natural disasters can alter the growth picture for a country.

Is it Katrina all over again? Or is it bigger? Much bigger? That's what I am thinking about this Chinese earthquake.

Katrina distorted the U.S.'s growth pattern for more than a full year. The raw materials, the effort, the work, the reconstruction affected businesses from small-scale retail to refining and infrastructure.

We don't really know how China works, although a lot of people tell us they do. To me, the Chinese are always a day away from revolution or civil war and the trick of the government is to stay one step ahead of the posse. (Chinese hands will dispute that, but you have to appreciate that it takes a special skill to be wrong for more than a century and still maintain credibility.)

That means massive reconstruction: bricks, lumber, cement, steel and all the trimmings. Massive imports, not controlled by the Chinese and their little negotiation games like they play with iron and steel and coal. Just full-bore buying and something that could take growth for China back to the levels that everyone thought it couldn't absorb without more inflation.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal reported that Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) CEO Alan Mulally isn't done cost-cutting. According to people close to the situation, Mulally is considering more job cuts, selling its Volvo brand and closing the troubled Mercury brand.
• BHP Billiton Limited (NYSE: BHP) CEO Marius Kloppers strongly criticized Rio Tinto Plc (NYSE: RTP) and its CEO yesterday, the Financial Times reported. BHP Billiton has outperformed Rio Tinto in several areas, including share price appreciation and EPS growth, said Kloppers, adding, "On every metric I can envisage they [Rio] have been beaten."

OTHER PAPERS:

• According to the Economic Times, AT&T Inc (NYSE: T) is reportedly in preliminary talks with Malaysia's Maxis Communications about buying its 74% stake in Indian cellular phone company Aircel, sources said.
• The United Auto Workers union has rejected several "generous" benefit and wage proposals, according to American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc (NYSE: AXL). In a statement yesterday, the Detroit News reported that American Axle said while tentative agreements had been reached on several issues, the UAW "repeatedly rejected" other proposals that were "considerably higher than the market rate."

"A once in a lifetime super bull market in commodities is underway," note resource experts Mary Anne and Pamela Aden. Here, the advisors look at some favorite commodity stocks in their The Aden Forecast.

"Commodities are in a mega super rise is because of the dramatic changes in the global economy. The rise that started in commodities in 2001 has continued to expand over the years and we believe the upmove is just warming up and it has years to run.

"There are several reasons for this. The weakening dollar and low interest rates have certainly helped push up the whole sector while investment demand grew as an inflation hedge. But the key reason why the commodities are in a mega super rise is because of the dramatic changes in the global economy.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Jefferies Group, Quality Systems and Techwell were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Friedman Billings initiated Jefferies Group (NYSE: JEF) with a Market Perform citing the difficult underwriting environment and challenging credit market.
  
• JMP Securities initiated Quality Systems (NASDAQ: QSII) with an Outperform rating and $35 target. The firm expects the company's practice management and electronic medical record solutions to benefit from growth opportunities within the ambulatory market.
  
• Techwell (NASDAQ: TWLL) was assumed with an Overweight rating and $14 target at Thomas Weisel, as they expect TWLL to have continued stable revenue growth given its market leadership and increased global security demand.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Bernstein initiated NetSuite (NYSE: N) with a Market Perform rating and $23 target.
  
• Keefe Bruyette started Comerica (NYSE: CMA) with a Market Perform rating and $37 target.
  
• BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) and Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) were assumed at ING with Buy ratings.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Prudential Financial were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Bernstein upgraded shares of BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) and Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) to Outperform from Market Perform as they believe urbanization in China will increase demand for metals.
  
• Prudential Financial (NYSE: PRU) was raised to Overweight from Underweight at Lehman as they believe the company's exposure to commercial mortgage-backed securities is limited.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• SL Green Realty (NYSE: SLG) and Brookfield Properties (NYSE: BPO) were upgraded at Credit Suisse to Neutral from Underperform.
  
• Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY) was raised at UBS to Buy from Neutral.

Before the bell: Investors await jobs data; MOT, GSK, UBS

As the mega-merger that created Citigroup (NYSE: C) is nearing ten years, the Financial Times interviewed John Reed, one of the masterminds behind the deal. Interestingly, he told the paper that the deal was a mistake and blasted several segments and personnel at the bank.

BHP Billiton Ltd. (NYSE: BHP) shares are trading higher today after the company announced that it has declared a force majeure at its Colombian Cerro Matoso nickel mine due to an ongoing strike. A spokesman said the force majeure will not be called off until the strike ends and production resumes. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on BHP.

After hitting a one-year low of $47.30 last March, the stock hit a one-year high of $87.43 in October. BHP opened this morning at $66.27. So far today the stock has hit a low of $65.73 and a high of $66.49. As of 12:15, BHP is trading at $65.81, up 75 cents (1.1%). The chart for BHP looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a negative 2 STARS (out of 5) sell rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a May bull-put credit spread below the $55 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 13.6% return in just 2 months as long as BHP is above $50 at May expiration. BHP would have to fall by more than 16% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

BHP hasn't been below $55 since August and has shown support around $62 recently. This trade could be risky if the commodities market weakens due to the slowing economy, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find around $58, where it bottomed out in January.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in BHP.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• To help stabilize the housing market, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Bush Administration is planning to help create fresh funding for mortgages. The plan, which still requires final approval, is said to ease an excess-capital requirement for government sponsored organizations Federal National Mortgage Association (NYSE: FNM), or Fannie Mae, Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (NYSE: FRE), or Freddie Mac, and the Federal Housing Administration.
• The Wall Street Journal also reported that a merger between Northwest Airlines Corporation (NYSE: NWA) and Delta Air Lines Inc (NYSE: DAL) may be derailed after Delta pilots notified executives they remain unable to reach an agreement with Northwest pilots on how to integrate pilot ranks should the two combine.
• The Financial Times reported that BAE Systems Plc (OTC: BAESY) won a $715M order to supply nearly 1,500 mine-resistant vehicles from the U.S. government.

OTHER PAPERS:

• The Chinese government has locked out Australian mining giants BHP Billiton Limited (NYSE: BHP) and Rio Tinto Plc (NYSE: RTP) from selling iron ore into its daily spot market, the Sydney Morning Herald reported. Mining sources said that the decision may have already cost Australia up to $300M in export profits.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• According to sources, the Wall Street Journal reported that Countrywide Financial Corporation (NYSE: CFC) is under investigation for possible securities fraud. People close to the situation say the inquiry is in its early stages but it involves an inquiry into alleged misrepresentations of the company's financial position and the quality of its mortgage loans.
• The Financial Times reported that Credit Suisse Group (NYSE: CS) has teamed up with three leading academics to create products that will deal with the potentially lucrative hedge fund replication industry. The upcoming suite of products will attempt to mechanically replicate the returns of the major hedge fund strategies.

OTHER PAPERS:

• Rio Tinto Plc (NYSE: RTP) is expected to announce this week that its aluminum business is worth up to $20B more than current estimates, after a rise in aluminum prices; the UK Times reported that the statement could raise pressure on BHP Billiton Limited (NYSE: BHP) to increase its takeover bid for Rio.
• Asset manager Ameriprise Financial Inc (NYSE: AMP) is pairing up with MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE: MA), the Associated Press reported, to become a credit card lender for the first time, the two companies reportedly plan to announce today.

BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) closed of $73.64 Thursday.

BHP announced on Feb. 6 the offer of 3.4 BHP shares per Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) to create the world's largest mining company.

BHP overall option implied volatility of 45 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risk.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

It is alarming to me that the same people who screw up the economy (or stand by watching) are the ones that are now promoting the remedies. They have proven without a shadow of a doubt that this is not their strong suit. The proposed economic stimulus package has bi-partisan support and calls for an estimated $156 billion of tax rebates ranging from $500 to $1,000 (+ $300 for each child) that might show up in May.

If we are going to add on to our already humungous joke of national debt, than I want to invest this capital in something that will bring a higher return on invested capital (ROIC) than the paltry one time mad money. That expenditure should be for national infrastructure projects like roadways, bridges, tunnels, and waterways.

We have all heard about the poor condition of our national infrastructure and the hundreds of billions of dollars of repair work and replacement that is desperately needed.

This alternative would bring visible results that every single person in the country would benefit from and improved linkages always stimulate economic growth. Road improvements even reduce fuel consumption by shortening routes and reducing friction both strategically and physically.

Rio Tinto's above-consensus sale price for its gold mine to Barrick Gold almost certainly increases Rio's negotiating stance vis-a-vis takeover bids from BHP Billiton or from other potential suitors, an analyst told BloggingStocks Friday.

"Rio's sale of its gold mine to Barrick for $1.7 billion when the market was expecting something like $570-$700 million is a fundamental data point the market cannot ignore," independent stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer said Friday. "It will force BHP Billiton and others receptive to a deal to redo their fair-value projections for Rio."

Rio (NYSE: RTP) has twice rejected hostile buyout offers from BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP), the last for $147.4 billion, involving at least 3.4 BHP shares for each Rio share, arguing that the bids substantially undervalue Rio. Rio gained 64 cents to $452.89 while BHP gained $1.01 to $72.89 in Friday afternoon trading.

At first glance, the idea of bidding wars for targets appears to be a paradox in the current economic environment. After all, the U.S. economy is barely inching along, and the credit markets can be described, at best, as being cautious regarding potential deals. But the mining sector is another story, Bauer said. Strong economic growth in emerging markets has created surging demand for raw materials, minerals, and commodities. Further, the sector is in the midst of mergers and expansions that will produce miners with global market capabilities.

Iron ore war?

The above demand, particularly from Asia, Bauer said, has offset recent, modest quarterly earnings performance from some miners, and has driven up the value of miners like Rio and Freeport McMoRan (NYSE: FC).

In addition, China's size and its economic development plan has further increased miners' value. China, which with Alcoa (NYSE: AA) earlier this year jointly purchased a 9% stake in Rio Tinto through its Chinalco aluminum company, has said it will continue to seek acquisitions of foreign companies, including mining companies, Bauer said. Bauer added that he does not have a rating on any mining company nor own their shares.

"China may ultimately try to outbid BHP because a BHP / Rio union would unite two of the three largest suppliers of iron ore, which China needs for its economy," Bauer said. "A BHP / Rio union would likely leave China in a weaker negotiating position regarding iron ore prices. So you can see why Rio feels BHP's offers so far have not valued the company fairly. Rio knows that as long as China grows, it has a commodity likely to increase in value substantially for years to come. And that's a good place to be in, from a corporate standpoint."

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Mining companies BHP Billiton Limited (NYSE: BHP) and Rio Tinto Plc (NYSE: RTP) are not only competing over iron-ore customers, but they are not competing for investors as well, according to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street." BHP says 60% of their investors also own Rio shares; Rio puts the figure at 50%.
• Prices for the top 50 branded drugs increased an average of 6.73% in 2006 and 7.82% last year at wholesale, according to market research firm Delta Marketing Dynamics. Often targeted by politicians, pharmaceutical companies are undeterred, the Wall Street Journal reported.

WEB SITES:

• According to iSuppli sources, Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) has cut its 2008 NAND order forecast and informed suppliers that its demand growth will slow in 2008 vs. 2007.
• The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) is considering suspending work on the short-range version of its 787 jet, the -3 shorthaul, in an attempt to get production of the long-range version, the long-range -8, back on track, Flight Blogger said.

A new study shows that Pfizer (NYSE: PFE)'s cancer drug Sutent may be linked to more instances of heart failure than previously thought. Some 15% of patients suffered heart failure when taking Sutent, according to results from a small study, a higher rate than the 8% previously recognized.

After already raising its offer for Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP), a senior executive on Wednesday said BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) would have to raise it "considerably" to lure the miner into talks from the latest offer of 3.4 BHP shares for every RTP share -- a deal at worth around $147.4 billion.

While Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) co-CEO Jim Balsillie declined to give details about future product plans, he said his company may bring out a touchscreen version of its BlackBerry if customers want it. Of course, this was in direct response to Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone, which has won praise for its innovative touchscreen control. RIM would introduce devices based on HSDPA.
RIM customers experienced service disruption Monday and an early investigation indicated a problem caused by a recent upgrade aimed to increase capacity.